Travel Watch

ATL → CUN · depart between 2026-11-24 and 2026-12-02 · 5–7 nights, 6 ideal · must include a saturday · 2 adults, adults-only property · 4★ or better · target all-in $7,000 (soft) · ≤3 PTO days

You hear from it on: a new all-in low; anything ≥15% under baseline; a ≥10% drop on something already tracked; a scarcity signal; a sunday heartbeat regardless.

Honest read

The top 4 options are within 2 points — the score has stopped discriminating. Break the tie on something it does not weigh: cheapest of them is D-108 at $3,165, 2026-11-26 – 2026-12-01.

• D-177 dropped $3,135 · 2026-11-25 – 2026-11-30 — dropped from $3,357
  21% below typical (thin, n=2) · +8 near-identical
• D-147 dropped $3,355 · 2026-11-25 – 2026-11-30 — dropped from $3,797
  24% below typical (thin, n=5) · +8 near-identical

Straight from the last run's diff — new and price-changed offers only, and a soft drop that stays above baseline is not treated as news.

Window best & tracked itineraries · all-in, by day

The bold line is the window best — the cheapest trip anywhere in the window that day, answering "is this destination getting cheaper." Each thin line is one tracked itinerary (fixed dates and route), answering "should I book the trip I am watching." They move at different speeds, so they are charted together but kept distinct.

Shortlist — 9 distinct trip window(s), 46 priced option(s)

Funnel on the last run: searched 69 combinations, relevance gate removed 0, priced 69 across 8 distinct window(s) — new 0, price-dropped 16, unchanged 46, disappeared 0, folded as near-duplicates 7, suppressed after rejection 0.

Fit

How closely the trip matches what you asked for — nights, budget, vibe, hotel class, adults-only, flight quality, PTO. This is the primary ranking signal.

Value

Whether today's price is good for this trip, versus the price history. It only nudges the fit up or down by ±40%; it never zeroes a good match.

Total

fit × (0.6 + 0.4 × value/100). A perfect match at a mediocre price still scores well — deliberately.

Known vs estimated

Known is quoted by a provider with a timestamp and a booking link. Estimated comes from the destination atlas. They are never merged silently, because only the known half is what you actually pay at the click.

Baseline confidence

seeded — a starting guess, directional only. thin — under 14 observations. solid — 45 or more. A percentage against a thin baseline is not evidence.

Liveness

live — priced just now. cached — a discovery-grade price trend, never to be quoted as bookable.

PTO days

Weekdays inside the trip, minus US federal holidays. Counted because a cheap trip that costs a week of leave is not cheap.